In the metropolitan city of Bangalore, the
Bangalore Development Authority is undertaking several construction projects.
Many of these projects involve construction of huge multi-level flyovers and
the organizations involved in the work do not have adequate prior experience of
constructing similar flyovers. Moreover, the process is riddled with
considerable uncertainty due to political and public interference.
Consequently, although estimation of activities is possible, estimation of the
duration of the project is difficult. Table 4.19 gives the list of activities, and
three possible time estimates for the activities. Use this information to
analyse the problem of uncertainty by answering the following questions:
(a) Compute the expected duration for all
the activities in the project.
(b) Draw a network of the project and
identify alternative paths in the network.
(c) For each path, compute the expected
duration and hence identify the critical path and the near critical path for
(d) What is the probability of completion
of the project by 36 months?
(e) If the organization wants to ensure 80
per cent probability of completion, what date should it set for project
(f) Suppose the client feels that the due
date for completion is too late, what options does the organization have in
reducing the project duration?
(g) Compute the probability of completion
of the project for the near critical path. Do you observe anything interesting
in your results? Comment on the analysis.